Bank of America forecasts that Brent crude oil prices will rise above $150 in 2027

Bank of America raised its forecast for the price of Brent crude at the end of 2026 from $83 to $95 per barrel and warned that, in the event of prolonged supply disruptions, prices could exceed $150 per barrel in 2027. However, the bank’s baseline forecast for next year calls for an average Brent price of around $80 per barrel.

Bank of America warned that one of its scenarios calls for the price of Brent crude to rise above $150 per barrel next year. “If supply disruptions persist until spring 2027 or damage to oil infrastructure worsens, Brent futures on the ICE exchange could surge well above $150 per barrel to curb global demand,” the bank’s note states, as quoted by MarketWatch.

The bank raised its forecast for Brent crude oil at the end of 2026 from $83 to $95 per barrel. “Although alternative routes and escorting shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have partially offset the shortage, damaged infrastructure and rising geopolitical tensions make a rapid return to normal unlikely,” explained Bank of America analysts, led by Francisco Blanche, head of global commodity markets, equity derivatives, and multi-asset quantitative strategies, regarding the upward revision.

For 2027, Bank of America analysts expect the average price of Brent to be around $80 per barrel, though they note risks associated with the drawdown of strategic reserves and signs of an acute market shortage in the near term. Despite this shortage, energy remains relatively affordable when adjusted for income and inflation, and economic growth has not yet slowed, the bank’s analysts said. The supply shortfall through the Strait of Hormuz has narrowed from approximately 14 million barrels per day at the start of the conflict between the U.S. and Iran to a recent average of 4–8 million barrels per day, according to BofA’s calculations.

On September 22, Brent and WTI futures are trading below $100 and $95 per barrel, respectively, down 1.1% and 1.2%. This was triggered by a Reuters report that Saudi Arabia is resuming operations on the East-West pipeline and preparing to begin shipping oil from the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea.

This is not the first time Bank of America has revised its oil forecast amid the war in Iran. In March 2026, the bank raised its forecast for the average Brent price in 2026 from $61 to $77.5 per barrel, factoring in prolonged supply disruptions due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. In May, Blanche outlined a broader range of scenarios: from $90 per barrel in the most favorable scenario to $120–130 if the dual blockade of the strait by the U.S. and Iran continued. He identified the resumption of shipping through the strait as the optimal outcome for the market.

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