Highlights of the week: US-Iran truce, Meta AI model, Universal Music deal

Donald Trump agreed with Iran on a two-week truce and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, which supported the growth of world markets and led to a slight decline in oil prices. Meanwhile, details of a possible listing of SpaceX became known: the company is preparing a placement with a focus on retail investors, but analysts doubt the potential for profitability at a valuation of $2 billion. Against this background, Pershing Square plans to acquire Universal Music with a significant premium, considering the company's securities undervalued. The main events of April 6-10 are in our review.

US President Donald Trump has agreed to a two-week truce with Iran on the condition that the Strait of Hormuz is opened. Trump warned days earlier that the U.S. would strike Iran's power plants and bridges if Tehran did not open the Strait to shipping by Tuesday evening, April 7.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and Israel joined the ceasefire. The news of the temporary truce supported the markets: S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices at the end of the week showed the best growth since November, reflecting expectations of de-escalation. The Dow Jones blue chip index has added 3% since the beginning of the week. Brent crude futures fell to $94.5 per barrel on Friday, April 10, while WTI fell to $95.9 per barrel.

What else is there to read on this topic?

- The Dubai Stock Exchange index rose sharply amid news of a truce between the US and Iran. Why exactly was it the UAE that was bombarded by Iran most intensively? - Elena Chirkova, Senior Partner at Movchan's Group, explained in her column "Why Dubai has become Iran's main target? Here's what investors in the Middle East think".

- US President Donald Trump has said that "many of the 15 points" being negotiated with Iran have already been agreed. What do the countries agree on? - in the material "Many points have already been agreed: Trump discusses with Iran the easing of sanctions and uranium".

- One investment strategy, TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out), is based on the fact that Donald Trump tends to tone down his rhetoric in arguments to prevent the stock market from falling. Is it possible to make money on it now? - The article "Betting on TACO: Is it possible to make money on Trump's 'concessions'?" was analyzed in the article "Betting on TACO: Is it possible to make money on Trump's 'concessions'?".

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the change in the cost of goods and services in the U.S., jumped 3.3% on an annualized basis in March. The last time inflation was near this level was in the spring of 2024. In February, the indicator stood at 2.4%, while the US Federal Reserve's target level was 2%. CPI rose 0.9% from the previous month, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This is the first data that shows the impact of rising oil prices on the economy, Barron's noted.

Core CPI - a benchmark index that excludes volatile food and energy and is the Fed's benchmark - rose 0.2% versus Wall Street's expected 0.3%, MarketWatch writes. But if oil prices stay high long enough, energy costs will eventually affect other goods and services. The Fed won't be able to ignore the general acceleration in inflation and will be extremely reluctant to cut interest rates, MarketWatch says.

Bill Ackman's Pershing Square investment firm has announced plans to acquire Universal Music Group. The deal could be worth around €55.75 billion ($64.3 billion) and will be paid in cash and stock. Following the news, Universal Music shares rose more than 24% in the moment in Amsterdam.

The deal assumes that Universal Music will merge with the structure of Pershing Square and get a listing on the New York Stock Exchange, writes CNBC. Pershing Square believes that Universal Music shares are now too cheap: their fair price - about € 30.4 per share, which is about 56.5% above their value at the end of trading on April 10. Over the past year, Universal Music shares have lost about 16% of their value. According to Pershing Square, this is not a problem of the music business itself, but the influence of external factors - uncertainty around the share of the French Bollore in Universal Music, the delay in going public in the U.S. and unsuccessful communication with investors.

What else is there to read about Bill Ackman?

- Billionaire Bill Ackman is preparing to launch a new fund for "asymmetric" deals - betting against market consensus. How is he going to repeat his successful strategy in the past? - in the material "Deals for the end of the world: billionaire Ackman is preparing a fund for betting against market hopes".

Elon Musk's SpaceX has decided to allocate an unusually large share of stock to retail investors around the world in preparation for the IPO. This was written by Reuters, citing sources. SpaceX's preparations for going public include: a meeting of top management with analysts from underwriting banks, the launch of a road show in the second week of June and a large-scale event for retail investors on June 11 with the participation of about 1.5 thousand people. Investors from the US, EU countries, as well as the UK, Australia, Canada, Japan and South Korea will be able to participate.

However, analysts warn of the risks. Investors should think carefully before buying SpaceX shares after the listing, as much of the potential is already factored into the price, says Brin Talkington, managing partner of Requisite Capital Management. Given SpaceX's $16 billion in revenue, the company's $2 trillion valuation makes no sense," says Talkington. To achieve acceptable profitability, the company's capitalization must grow to $3 trillion, which is unlikely with such a revenue base, agrees Stephen Weiss, chief investment officer and managing partner of Short Hills Capital Partners.

Tesla is developing a new compact and more affordable electric crossover - a separate model rather than a version of the Model 3 or Model Y, Reuters has learned. Tesla itself did not comment. The project is still at an early stage: details are being discussed with suppliers, production is planned to begin in China and then to establish production in the United States and Europe. The car will be smaller and lighter than the Model Y, with one motor and a smaller battery, which will reduce the price, but the range will also be reduced.

The new model could be a return to mass electric cars amid falling sales, although the company is still betting on autonomous vehicles. At the same time, it is ready to retain the steering wheel and pedals to support sales in markets that are not ready for unmanned driving.

Meta Platforms shares jumped more than 9% in Momentum trading on April 8 - following the unveiling of its new AI model, Muse Spark. Muse Spark will be implemented into Meta AI and the company's ecosystem of services - including Instagram, Facebook and WhatsApp - and will, among other things, perform the function of searching for goods through an AI agent.

Muse Spark is the first result of Meta's new super team, which Mark Zuckerberg formed by poaching industry leaders. Despite its ambitions to create human-level AI, the Meta Superintelligence Labs model is still inferior to competitors' solutions and is at an early stage of development. The company itself has decided to move away from the open-source approach: Muse Spark is a closed model, i.e. its architecture and code will not be published.

What else is there to read about AI?

- An Oninvest editor tasked three AI bots with investing €500 for a month - but a sudden war in the Middle East brought all strategies crashing down. What went wrong - in Alfia Zivere's column "ChatGPT, Claude and DeepSeek invested my €500. None made money."

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor