"Stuck with high prices": experts - on the risks of a double blockade of the Strait of Hormuz

Expert warns: the prospect of a bilateral blockage of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a long-term price shock in the energy market. An agreement with Iran has failed, and US President Donald Trump has instructed the US Navy to close the strait, where shipping has already been halted by Iran, from 10 a.m. Monday (19:00 Astana time).

- "The prospect of US naval operations around the Strait of Hormuz raises the risk of disruption to global oil supplies," The Guardian quoted Greg Boland, a market strategy consultant at brokerage platform Moomoo, as saying. According to him, this could directly fuel inflation expectations and make it more difficult for central banks. In addition, the growth of geopolitical tensions will inevitably hit investor sentiment.

- "The market has basically returned to pre-firewall conditions, except that now the U.S. will also block the remaining Iran-related supplies through the Strait of Hormuz of up to 2 million barrels," Reuters quotes MST Marquee analyst Sol Kavonik as saying. According to the expert, the main question now is whether the U.S. will resume strikes on Iran - this will increase the risk of attacks on energy facilities throughout the Middle East with long-term consequences beyond the war itself.

- "The market makes it clear that it does not believe in Trump's intention to carry out new strikes on military facilities or take control of the Strait of Hormuz", - says the head of investment department VanEck in Sydney Russell Chesler - so he, in particular, commented on the small (within 1%) decline in stock markets in Asia on the background of new threats Trump. At the same time, the expert warns of the risks of inflation, which will increase as the oil shock drags on. He adds: "Even if the strait reopens, the flow of oil will be quite slow, so we will be stuck with high prices for a while."

- "The mere threat of enforcement action was enough to reassess risks, demonstrating oil's vulnerability to geopolitical triggers," notes Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova. According to her, the return to triple-digit prices now looks quite justified. A new jump in the geopolitical risk premium, which had managed to decline only briefly during the news about the ceasefire, is also logical, she emphasized.

- "How will this (blocking the Strait of Hormuz by U.S. warships. - Oninvest) help lower gasoline prices at all?" - Democratic Senator Mark Warner wondered on CBS. He noted that Iran is still capable of booby-trapping the strait from boats or blowing up tankers.

- Although the U.S. strikes have seriously weakened the Iranian army, Tehran remains a difficult problem for Washington. Analysts estimate that during this standoff, Iran's leadership has only hardened its stance by maintaining hidden stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, Reuters reports.

- "Retaliatory measures by Iran or the Houthis against alternative routes of [energy] producers in the Persian Gulf could drive prices even higher," said Kevin Book, managing director of ClearView Energy Partners. In a conversation with the Associated Press, the expert noted that lower supply volumes usually lead to market shortages and higher oil prices. According to him, the final effect "largely depends on the scale and implementation of the blockade," as well as Tehran's own response.

- "We expected difficult and lengthy negotiations, but assumed that this weekend's discussion would at least start the process of partially stabilizing the situation - and obviously we were wrong," BNP Paribas analysts admitted (quoted by Reuters). "We would not be surprised if talks resume relatively quickly given the timing of the current truce," the bank added.

- "There is not a single military lever in his (Trump. - Oninvest) arsenal that he can use to get his way," PBS quoted Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at King's College London, as saying. The security expert called Trump's plan to block the strait with U.S. naval forces unrealistic. According to his estimates, the US administration will eventually have to make concessions to Iran.

- "The window of de-escalation for the global economy, whatever it may be, is closed at this point," Rachel Ziemba, a senior fellow at the Washington-based think tank Center for a New American Security, told The Wall Street Journal. "Iran is betting on being able to hold out longer than the U.S. and the global economy," she stated.

- "The risks and costs of a prolonged blockade, as well as possible Chinese pressure, indicate Trump may not follow through," wrote Bloomberg analysts led by Jennifer Welch. According to their estimates, the approach of the US fleet to Iran threatens a dangerous round of escalation due to the threat of missile strikes. At the same time, the Houthis may disrupt energy supplies through the Red Sea. Experts emphasize: "The very threat [of a blockade] increases the likelihood of miscalculation and keeps the risks to oil flows and markets high.

- "Achieving de-escalation through escalation is particularly risky in the case of Iran," notes John Bradford, a former U.S. naval officer and current head of the Yokosuka Council for Asia-Pacific Studies. He emphasized that such an approach does not work with everyone - and Tehran has already demonstrated its resistance to such tactics.

The failure of U.S.-Iranian talks over the weekend and the U.S. announcement of a blockade of Iranian ports caused oil futures to rise back above $100 per barrel on April 13, while stock indexes and the value of gold declined. Agricultural commodity prices rose on risks of disruptions to fuel and fertilizer supplies. Otherwise, the morning reaction of the markets was not extreme, notes Reuters: quotes of most assets returned to the indicators of the middle of last week, which were observed before the agreement on a two-week truce between the United States, Israel and Iran.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor