'War changes consumption': IEA expects oil demand to fall - for the first time since the pandemic

This year, global demand for oil will decline for the first time since the start of the pandemic in 2020, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), writes Bloomberg. All growth potential will be offset by a significant increase in oil prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East, the IEA said in its monthly report.

"The war in Iran has fundamentally changed the global outlook for oil consumption," the representatives of the organization-advisor of the world's largest economies observed. - The decline in demand will grow as [energy] shortages and high [oil] prices persist," the IEA said.

Against this background, drew the attention of CNBC, oil quotations, which fell the day before amid reports of possible continuation of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, fell on April 14 more. In particular, futures for Brent with delivery in June at the minimum fell to $96.5 per barrel (at the time of publication they cost $98.45, which is almost 1% lower than the level of the previous close). Contracts for U.S. WTI were falling to $95.2, but then slowed the pace of decline. At the time of publication they are down by 2.37% against the closing on April 13 and are trading at $96.88.

"[Global] oil demand is expected to decline [in 2026] by 80,000 bpd this year," the IEA report said. That estimate of global oil demand is 730,000 bpd less than the IEA expected last month. "The projected decline of 1.5 million bpd in the second quarter of 2026 will be the sharpest since fuel consumption was significantly reduced by the COVID-19 pandemic," the experts said.

Last month, the IEA estimates global oil supplies fell by 10.1 million bpd, or about 9% - as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE and Kuwait were forced to partially halt production due to fighting and attacks from Iran.

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