'Classic shock': billionaire Ken Griffin warned of the risk of a global recession
Inflationary pressures due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with growing worries about layoffs due to artificial intelligence, are creating an extremely stressful time for workers, according to the head of hedge fund Citadel
Recession will become inevitable if the Strait of Hormuz does not open in the next 6-12 months, says Griffin / Photo: X / Ken Griffin
The world economy cannot avoid a recession if the Strait of Hormuz, one of the planet's most important energy corridors, remains blocked by war for an extended period of time, billionaire billionaire Ken Griffin, CEO of hedge fund Citadel, has warned.
"Suppose the strait is closed for the next six to twelve months - then the world economy will be in recession. There is no way to avoid that," he said at the Semafor World Economy conference in Washington.
According to Griffin, this is "a really, really dangerous moment" for the world economy: about 20% of the world's oil and gas exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and its closure after the start of the US-Israeli war against Iran caused a "classic energy shock". Rising inflation due to this shock will force global central banks to consider raising interest rates, he believes. Griffin said this, combined with growing anxiety about the impact of artificial intelligence on the labor market, creates "an extremely stressful moment for the American worker," Business Insider reports.
One of the long-term consequences of the crisis will be an accelerated transition to alternative energy sources - wind, solar and nuclear generation, Griffin said. According to him, the U.S., thanks to its own production capacity, is in a somewhat less vulnerable position due to the closure of the strait, but for the countries of Asia and Europe this route is critical.
On the eve of the International Monetary Fund presented three economic scenarios depending on the outcome of events in the Middle East. The optimistic scenario assumes that the war will be short-term, and the world economy will grow by 3.1% this year (before the war, the IMF predicted growth of 3.3%). The pessimistic scenario envisages further escalation and a sharp rise in energy prices - in this case, the world economy will be close to recession, the IMF warned. When preparing the forecast, the fund adopted the optimistic scenario as the base scenario, but during its presentation on April 14, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gurinsha admitted that the unfavorable scenario was more likely, Reuters reports.
This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor
