JPMorgan allowed oil prices to rise above $150 per barrel

Oil prices in the short term may rise to $120-130 per barrel, and if the disruption of supplies through the Strait of Hormuz until mid-Ma - to exceed $150, according to analysts at JPMorgan, their opinion quotes Reuters.

The bank's baseline scenario assumes that movement along the strait, which is part of the world's most important energy export route, will be restored through negotiations. In this case, JPMorgan predicts that oil prices will remain above $100 per barrel during the second quarter. And in the second half of the year - will begin to decline on the background of partial resumption of the Strait and gradual normalization of stocks.

Bank analysts note that the scale and duration of oil price growth will determine the strength of the macroeconomic shock: the longer they remain high, the higher the risk of weakening demand and possible recession.

June Brent crude futures rose nearly 8% to $109.2 a barrel on Thursday, while May contracts for U.S. WTI crude jumped nearly 12% to $112 a barrel, marking the biggest daily gain since the recovery from the collapse during the coronavirus pandemic six years ago, The Wall Street Journal calculated.It was only the third time in history that oil futures for the coming month rose more than $10 in a single trading session. There is no trading on Friday, April 3, because of Good Friday.

Oil executives and analysts warn that futures must rise further before they begin to reflect real value. In spot markets, prices have already reached highs since 2008, when records were set.

Thursday's rally was sparked by statements from U.S. President Donald Trump, who in an evening address on Wednesday, April 1, warned of further escalation of military action against Iran in the next two to three weeks. This dashed hopes for a quick end to the war in the Middle East, CNBC wrote. At the same time, quotes retreated from intraday highs after Iran's state-run IRNA reported that Tehran is working with Oman on a mechanism to monitor shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

On Friday night, Iran launched new strikes on targets in the Persian Gulf countries, Bloomberg reports. A drone attack caused a fire at the Mina al-Ahmadi refinery in Kuwait. And Abu Dhabi was forced to again suspend operations at the emirate's largest gas processing complex after a fire broke out due to debris from an intercepted projectile.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor