JPMorgan named possible "post-Trump deadline" scenarios. What stocks does he advise?

In anticipation of the approaching deadline on the ultimatum, which the U.S. President gave to Iran, the trading division of JPMorgan voiced scenarios of possible developments after the expiration of this deadline and their impact on the stock market, writes CNBC. Donald Trump threatened the Islamic Republic with the "death of civilization" if it does not make concessions and open the Strait of Hormuz by 20:00 Washington time. Earlier, he spoke of strikes on bridges and power plants.

"It seems that few people want to take a position before [Trump's] evening press conference and are instead compiling their 'buy lists' to play out scenarios afterward - in a situation with diametrically opposed outcomes," the investment bank's traders wrote. "A bullish outcome, in their opinion, would be any scenario in which events unfold away from further escalation of violence.

Here are which stocks JPMorgan predicts will rise under each scenario.

In the event of a cease-fire, the market would likely revert to the trades that worked in early 2026, before the war, JPMorgan traders wrote. The Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks will lead the gains, followed by the Nasdaq-100 and then the S&P 500, the bank predicts. It also expects outperformance from technology and cyclical stocks.

"Among cyclical securities, the biggest short-term upside potential is in consumer discretionary players, especially companies in the non-essential goods segment, such as housing developers and retailers. Financials are another segment where a multi-week rally on the back of an agreement [with Iran] or Trump's reversal is possible, given the improving macro backdrop, expected strong reporting (...) and weak investor engagement at the moment," JPMorgan predicts.

Precious metals are also likely to see a sharp recovery if the dollar weakens, traders said.

If we talk about countries, they count on growth in all markets, but prefer emerging markets to developed ones. In particular, the Asia-Pacific region should lead, followed by Latin America, the European Union and only then the United States, the bank's analysts wrote.

If a deal between the U.S. and Iran is not reached and civilian infrastructure takes a hit, energy assets will go up, JPMorgan predicts. It believes oil futures will quickly surpass the $125 a barrel mark and then $150.

"Defense companies (and their supply chain) as well as fertilizer producers should also fare well in this scenario," the trading desk expects. - Such a move by the U.S. could increase the likelihood of both a $200 billion emergency funding request and a $1.5 trillion defense budget."

In this scenario, JPMorgan prefers securities of large-capitalization companies, developed markets and U.S. assets.

In an extremely bearish scenario, analysts expect an "indiscriminate sell-off".

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