New York morning: Trump promised a stock market 'boom'

Daily review and forecast of events on the U.S. stock market from Mikhail Denislamov, Deputy Director of Freedom Capital Markets Research.

The situation around the Strait of Hormuz remains the main source of uncertainty for market participants. At the same time, news regarding the foreign policy agenda signaled an improvement in the overall situation. US President Donald Trump admitted the possibility of continuing negotiations with Iran with the mediation of Pakistan in the coming days.

In an interview with Fox News, the U.S. leader said the war is "very close to being over." Tehran is "very eager to make a deal," Trump suggested. At the same time, he downplayed the turbulence in world markets caused by the Iranian crisis and predicted that after the war in the Middle East ends, "the stock market is going to boom, it's already starting."

A de-escalation scenario is already being built into oil prices. The sharp decline in WTI quotations the day before indicates that investors are gradually reassessing the scale and duration of disruptions in energy supplies. Hopes for a final peace agreement between Iran and the US soon allow market participants to focus on classic corporate drivers: a positive start to the quarterly reporting season, M&A deals and the development of the AI trend.

The most important publication of the day will be the release of the Fed's Beige Book. The regulator's assessment of consumer activity, labor market and inflationary pressures will be especially important given the persistent foreign policy risks.

The Empire Manufacturing Index for April (consensus: -0.5 p., previous value: -0.2 p.) will be released before the opening of the session. Continued decline of the indicator will confirm that the state's manufacturing sector remains pessimistic amid the energy shock and supply uncertainty. However, the impact of these data will be secondary.

Of great importance for the dynamics of the upcoming trading is the first quarter report of ASML (ASML). The world's only manufacturer of EUV lithography equipment, without which the production of advanced chips is impossible, generated revenue of €8.8 billion with a gross margin of 53%, which is in line with the upper end of its own forecast. Management raised its 2026 revenue guidance to €36-40 billion from €34-39 billion, citing robust demand from memory and logic chip makers. ASLM shares are up about 1% on the premarket.

Before the main session, Bank of America Corp (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS) will publish quarterly reports (the dynamics of the interest margin of these corporations and the income of the investment banking division will be of particular importance for investors), Progressive Corporation (PGR), PNC Financial Services Group (PNC), M&T Bank Corporation (MTB ) and First Horizon Corporation (FHN) will also report. After the close, results for the most recent quarter will be reported by J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT).

Futures on S&P 500 demonstrate about zero dynamics. We assess the balance of risks for the upcoming session as positive with moderate volatility. S&P 500 is close to the historical record.

- Broadcom (AVGO) shares are adding about 3% in the premarket after announcing a partnership with Meta Platforms (META) that runs through 2029. The companies will jointly develop the industry's first AI gas pedal based on 2-nanometer process technology with an initial deployment of over 1 GW. This collaboration reinforces Broadcom's status as a key supplier of custom chips for the AI infrastructure of major technology companies.

- Quotes of GitLab (GTLB) before the opening of trading add about 5.5% on the news of expanding cooperation with Google Cloud with deeper integration of the GitLab platform with Google's cloud infrastructure. This will strengthen the company's position in the DevSecOps segment amid growing competition from Microsoft and GitHub.

- TeraWulf (WULF) securities are down 6% ahead of the start of the main session after announcing an additional $800 million common stock offering.

- Shares of Robinhood (HOOD) add about 4%, securities of Webull (BULL) grow within 8%, as the Securities and Exchange Commission ( SEC) abolished the rule, according to which traders had to keep at least $25 th. on the margin account for active intraday trading. Now brokers will monitor not the number of trades, but the actual level of risk in the client's portfolio. For both platforms, this means a direct inflow of new audience from small retail traders, who were previously cut off by a high entry threshold.

- Mama's Creations (MAMA) shares are up 4% after the release of quarterly results that exceeded analysts' expectations. The report confirms the sustainability of demand for ready-to-eat food products and demonstrates the successful scaling of the business through the expansion of distribution in large retail chains.

April 14 trading on American stock exchanges ended near session highs. The S&P 500 added 1.18%, trailing its historical record by only 0.2%, the Nasdaq 100 soared 1.81%, the Russell 2000 rose 1.32%, and the Dow Jones climbed 0.66%.

The main driver of optimism was the continuation of the ceasefire between the US and Iran, which offset part of the recent risk premium and contributed to the closing of short positions.

Most of the Magnificent Seven stocks traded in the green zone amid robust demand for AI infrastructure. Only Apple (AAPL: -0.14%) was in the negative.

The cyclical consumer goods sector (XLY: +2.21%) emerged as the leader of growth in the broad market, supported by retail and auto industry. The energy sector (XLE: -2.03%) was the outsider due to the collapse of WTI oil quotations amid local de-escalation in the Middle East.

Macroeconomic statistics supported buyers by pointing to a faster-than-expected cooling of manufacturing inflation. The General Producer Price Index (PPI) for Ma rose by only 0.5% mom, while Core PPI added only 0.1% mom against consensus of 1.1% and 0.5% respectively.

Against this backdrop, Treasury yields declined 3-5 basis points across the curve, which encouraged buying in the technology sector.

At the same time, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index went below its historical average in March.

Against the backdrop of geopolitical turbulence, the rhetoric of Fed representatives remains conservative. Head of the FRB Chicago Austan Goolsby warned that because of the economic consequences of the conflict with Iran, the beginning of the cycle of interest rate cuts may have to be postponed until 2027. At the same time, it became known that the hearings on the candidacy of Kevin Warsh for the post of Chairman of the Fed postponed until next week because of the position of Senator Thom Tillis, who considers it necessary to wait for the completion of the investigation of the Department of Justice.

- IonQ (IONQ: +20.2%) received a contract under the DARPA HARQ program, Nvidia (NVDA) in parallel presented open AI models for quantum computing. This news sharply increased investor interest in the quantum computing sector.

- CarMax (KMX: -15.1%) reported above consensus on revenue and earnings. At the same time, gross profit per vehicle declined and the finance division's earnings were weak. Management announced the suspension of buybacks and CAPEX for 2027 in the range of $400 million, signaling tighter financial discipline in the face of margin pressure.

- One of the biggest corporate developments was the takeover of Globalstar (GSAT: +9.6%) by Amazon (AMZN: +3.81%) for $11.6 billion. Shareholders will receive $90 per share at a premium of about 23% to the closing price on April 13. The deal is designed to accelerate construction of the tech giant's satellite network, although analysts point to the continued lack of launch capacity as a key operational constraint.

- American Airlines (AAL: +8.0%) reacted positively to information about a possible merger with United Airlines (UAL). The combined company would become the largest airline in the world, but the deal would inevitably face tough antitrust scrutiny even from the Trump administration. UAL's own stock reacted with restraint to the news.

- Wells Fargo (WFC: -5.7%) reported quarterly revenue and net interest income below average forecasts due to a larger-than-expected decline in net interest margin. Investors were disappointed with the corporation's fee income and expenses. Management left the net interest income guideline for 2026 unchanged.

- Avanos Medical (AVNS: +69.5%) will be taken over by American Industrial Partners for about $1.27 billion in cash (at $25 per share) by the end of the year, which implies a premium of about 72% to the closing price on April 13.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor