Motley Fool analyst thinks AI fintech Upstart could double by yead-end

Shares of Upstart Holdings, a mid-cap provider of AI-driven lending technology, could double by the end of 2026, argues Anthony Di Pizio, a contributor at the Motley Fool. His optimism is based on the company’s strong financial performance, as well as its plans to become a fully fledged bank. At the same time, Upstart shares are currently trading near their lowest level in almost three years, which opens up opportunities for investors, the analyst wrote.

The market capitalization of Upstart, a developer of an AI platform whose algorithms help banks rapidly assess loan applications and enable borrowers to secure more accurately priced loans, could double by the end of 2026, Di Pizio said. At the close of trading on Monday, the stock was priced at $28.00 per share. It rose nearly 3% on the day and has gained a further 4.3% on Tuesday.

At the same time, Upstart shares are down 36% year to date, and are now trading near their lowest level in almost three years. This creates an opportunity for investors, the analyst wrote.

The stock is currently trading at a price/sales ratio of 2.7, versus a three-year average of 5.7, according to the Motley Fool article. Based on Wall Street’s projected 2026 revenue of $1.4 billion, the ratio would fall to 1.8, the analyst noted.

He considers this valuation to be understated, and attributes the expected upside in the stock to Upstart’s strong financial performance. For 2025, the company reported a 64% increase in revenue to $1 billion, and net income of $53.6 million, versus a net loss of $129 million a year earlier.

Upstart originated nearly 1.5 million loans in 2025, up 115% year over year. In the fourth quarter, its algorithm handled 91% of all loan applications autonomously, without human intervention, Di Pizio noted, highlighting the scale and efficiency of its AI-driven underwriting model.

Another factor that could drive the stock higher, according to the analyst, is Upstart’s plan to become a full-fledged AI bank. In March, the company said it would apply for a bank charter, which would allow it to launch “the first bank built from the ground up on AI.”

Wall Street is divided on Upstart’s prospects: eight analysts rate the stock a “buy,” six recommend “hold,” and two suggest “sell.” The average target price stands at $42.60 per share, implying upside of more than 52% from the last closing price.