The sharpest decline in gold and oil prices in years, the strongest stock market gains: Results of a mixed quarter

The second quarter of 2026 was one of the most contrasting periods for global markets: demand for AI-related assets drove semiconductor stocks to record highs, while U.S. indices ended the same period with their best performance in six years. At the same time, gold is close to its worst three-month performance in 13 years, and oil is close to its steepest decline since 2020.

Here's a look at how late spring and early summer turned out for the major asset classes.

U.S. stock indices are closing out the second quarter with their best results in six years, according to Bloomberg. By the last trading day of the quarter, the broad-market S&P 500 index had gained nearly 18%.

“The second quarter was marked by impressive gains in chipmakers’ stocks and tech indices, a strengthening dollar—which pushed the [Japanese] yen to a 40-year low, and shifts in geopolitical risks that affected commodity markets,” said XTB Research Director Kathleen Brooks (as quoted by Bloomberg). The market’s rise was supported by easing tensions in the Middle East and a new wave of investor interest in AI, the agency added.

The technology sector posted its strongest first-half performance since 2023, when the artificial intelligence boom first gave stock markets a significant boost, according to Yahoo Finance. The sector has risen by about 28% since the start of the year.

Semiconductor stocks are ending the second quarter of 2026 with record gains amid a continuing boom in AI investment, according to Bloomberg. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which tracks chipmakers’ stocks, rose 82% through June 30—a record in the index’s history, the agency reports. Given Tuesday’s performance, the index has gained 100% since the start of 2026: if this trend continues, the annual result will be the strongest since the dot-com bubble in 1999, Bloomberg notes.

However, following the recent sell-off, investors are increasingly wondering how sustainable this rally will be. In late June, the sector faced heightened volatility: during the last full week of the month, the semiconductor index fell 7.9%, marking its worst performance since April 2025

“The market has bet everything on AI infrastructure. But now investors are asking how sustainable this is and whether it’s time to start worrying,” said C.J. Muse, senior managing director at Cantor Fitzgerald, as quoted by Bloomberg. According to Mewes, the main question now is whether the largest cloud providers will continue to ramp up their investments after 2026.

Memory manufacturers were the main drivers of growth in the first half of the year. Micron Technology’s stock has risen 300% since the start of the year, and the company’s market capitalization has exceeded $1 trillion. SanDisk led the growth, with its stock rising 830%. Other top performers included Western Digital, Seagate Technology, and Intel, whose stock gained 283% on expectations of a successful business recovery program.

At the same time, the sector’s largest companies have lagged significantly behind the market. Nvidia’s stock has risen by only 6% since the start of the year, making it the worst performer among the components of the semiconductor index, while Broadcom’s stock has gained 8.7%.

Gold prices are ending the second quarter with their worst performance since 2013, according to Reuters. The precious metal came under pressure due to a stronger dollar and growing expectations of further interest rate hikes in the U.S.

At the end of the month, the spot price fell to its lowest level since November 2025. For the month of June, the metal lost more than 11%, marking its fourth consecutive month of decline, and for the quarter, it posted its first decline since 2024 and its largest since the second quarter of 2013.

“Gold’s inability to sustain its gains points to the fragility of market sentiment: traders prefer to sell on rallies rather than buy on dips. This is a noticeable change compared to how the market has behaved in recent years,” Reuters quotes Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen as saying.

The strengthening dollar is putting additional pressure on gold, as investors are increasingly pricing in the likelihood of further monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. Higher interest rates typically reduce the appeal of gold, which does not pay interest, Reuters notes.

Oil prices are ending the second quarter with their biggest decline since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Reuters. The market is under pressure due to expectations of a possible resumption of talks between the U.S. and Iran, which could reduce the risk of disruptions to oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.

As of June 30, the price of Brent crude had fallen by about 38% since the start of the quarter, while U.S. WTI crude had fallen by about 30%, according to Reuters. Prices have essentially returned to the levels at which they were trading before the war between the U.S. and Iran began.

“I wouldn’t say the market has completely shed the geopolitical risk premium, but ships that were previously blocked have become available again as more tankers leave the Persian Gulf, creating a temporary influx of supply,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted in a Reuters report.

Expectations of rising supply are putting additional pressure on the market. Analysts at Morgan Stanley now forecast that the global oil market will face a surplus of 4.8 million barrels per day in 2027.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor