Fed rate, oil price and Micron report: what investors need to know this week

Oil prices have soared more than 40% since the start of the Iranian crisis: on the morning of March 16, Brent futures are trading near $105 and WTI futures are trading around $100 per barrel. This macroeconomic environment complicates the task of the US Federal Reserve, which will have to make a decision on the interest rate this week.

Due to the lack of signs of de-escalation, American stock markets closed last week in the negative. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which provides transit for 20% of the world's oil, is practically paralyzed. Under normal circumstances, a weak February employment report would have forced the Fed to think about lowering the rate, but now inflation risks from the war and the sharp rise in oil prices outweigh fears for the labor market, states Barron's. The Iranian crisis may also force the European Central Bank to abandon its previous wait-and-see strategy, notes The Wall Street Journal.

On Saturday night, U.S. President Donald Trump announced on the social network Truth Social about the strikes on the Iranian island of Kharq in the Persian Gulf. According to him, all military targets were hit, but the oil infrastructure remained intact. This small island (only about 8 kilometers long) is critical to the Iranian economy: it is here that the terminal that provides about 90% of the country's oil exports is located. According to the BBC, the authorities in Tehran have already warned that any attack on their oil facilities would trigger retaliatory strikes against Middle Eastern oil companies working with the US.

The key event of the corporate reporting calendar this week Yahoo Finance calls the publication of Micron's financial results. In addition, Nvidia's largest annual event starts on March 16, which will be opened with a keynote speech by the company's CEO Jensen Huang.

Nvidia's four-day GTC 2026 artificial intelligence conference will kick off on Monday, March 16. Nvidia President and CEO Jensen Huang will speak at 1 p.m. North American Eastern Time (ET) about plans for the year.

The National Bureau of Statistics of China reported on the growth of industrial production in the country in January-February by 6.3% in annual terms against the forecast of 5.1%. At the same time, the fall in prices for new buildings in 70 metropolitan areas of China accelerated in February to 3.2%, becoming the fastest since June 2025. The exception is Shanghai - housing prices there rose by 4.2% last month, Trading Economics notes.

Financial results will be released by Dollar Tree.

On Tuesday, March 17, the U.S. National Association of Realtors will report pending home sales for February. The consensus forecast suggests a 0.5% month-on-month decline after a 0.8% drop in January.

Financial statements will be disclosed by Docusign, Lululemon Athletica and Oklo.

On Wednesday, March 18, the Fed will announce its decision on monetary policy. The regulator is expected to keep the interest rate at 3.5-3.75%. The main issue for investors will be the Fed's signals regarding the prospects for rate cuts in the coming months in light of the war in the Middle East and the ensuing spike in energy prices, which threatens to accelerate inflation, according to The Wall Street Journal.

HSBC economists expect Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to give a "nuanced assessment", emphasizing the bilateral risks of the Middle East conflict to inflation and the economy. "We don't expect [Powell's] statement to send a clear signal on the implications for rates. Instead, it may indicate that the conflict will stoke inflation but also put pressure on economic activity," they said.

Five Below, General Mills, Macy's, Micron Technology, SailPoint and Williams-Sonoma will report quarterly results.

On Thursday, March 19, the ECB will make a decision on the interest rate. The upcoming meeting of the European regulator will help investors understand how exactly it intends to respond to new macroeconomic challenges and what must happen for a real revision of rates in 2026, says Niall Scanlon of Mediolanum International Funds. The expert expects that so far the bank will limit itself to promises to closely monitor the situation, refraining from direct signals on rate changes, writes WSJ.

Accenture, Alibaba Group, Darden Restaurants, Enel, FedEx and Planet Labs will report earnings.

Meituan and XPeng will release their financial reports on Friday, March 20.

This article was AI-translated and verified by a human editor